December 12, 2023: Why a “date change CR” isn’t just a “date change”
Before we close out the year, we at the CPC Center wanted to share a final update regarding government funding and the potential shutdown(s) looming in 2024. As a reminder, the stopgap continuing resolution (CR) Congress passed last month keeps some federal functions and agencies funded through January 19 and others through February 2 (see specifics here). How Congress keeps the government open after that will have major consequences for the services and programs families depend on. We’ll explain how below.
The problems with a "full-year" or "date change" CR, the latest ploy to avoid a winter shutdown
With about a month before the January 19 deadline, the House and Senate still haven’t settled exactly how much to spend in Fiscal Year (FY) 2024. Congress must finalize that topline number to determine how much to spend within each of the 12 appropriations bills (for a refresher on this process, see our appropriations timeline). Even though the summer’s Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) already set negotiated spending limits for the next two years, House Republicans have sought even lower figures. Speaker Mike Johnson reportedly proposed a topline number to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer last week. Johnson also floated extending the current stopgap bill through FY2024 (to September 30), an option he’s called a “full-year” or “date change” CR.
A full-year CR has two significant problems.
Problem #1: A full-year CR would force enormous cuts and slash the services families rely on.
Remember: last summer’s FRA suspended the debt ceiling, caps federal spending in FY2024 and 2025, and revises those caps further if a part-year CR is in place. We break down these changes below, rounding key numbers for simplicity:
Spending beyond the FY2024 caps listed above—$886 billion for defense and $704 billion for nondefense—will trigger a sequester. This means that if Congress appropriates higher amounts in the defense or nondefense category, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) must cut almost every program, project, and activity by a uniform percentage across the board to bring spending into compliance with the relevant cap.
So, suppose Congress enacts a full-year CR at current spending levels. Then, OMB must sequester nondefense spending by $73 billion, because current nondefense spending ($777 billion) is $73 billion above the FRA cap ($704 billion). Furthermore, since the defense cap is about $27 billion higher than current spending, a full-year CR would leave money on the table on the defense side of the ledger.
Democratic and GOP appropriators criticized this proposal. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Patty Murray has suggested a full-year CR could force an across-the-board cut to nondefense programs as high as 9.4 percent and released a fact sheet on a full-year CR’s consequences, including:
Taking WIC nutrition assistance from at least 2.7 million moms and kids each month;
Furloughing more than 900 food inspectors, risking our food safety;
Cutting off housing assistance for almost 700,000 households, which could force families into homelessness; and
Shuttering more than 100 air traffic control towers, causing nationwide travel disruptions.
Problem #2: A full-year CR would apply the inadequate authorities in a part-year CR to a full fiscal year.
Simply “changing the date” on the current part-year CR has harmful effects well beyond the cuts discussed above. A date-change CR would leave out the regular advance appropriations for key veterans programs (including their medical care, pensions, and other benefits), the Indian Health Service, and many other critical programs. A full-year CR with a mere date change would also omit FY2024 community project funding (a.k.a. earmarks) that bring federal money to select projects in Members’ districts—an important perk Members will want to tout in an election year—and inadvertently direct scarce resources to the projects that were funded last year.
What if Congress passes another short-term CR to buy more negotiating time?
While Speaker Johnson has said he will not allow it, Congress could pass a short-term CR that avoids shutdowns on January 19 and February 2. However, continuing to kick the can via short-term patches also has consequences. Under the FRA, if any short-term CR remains in effect past April 30, revised FY2024 spending caps will kick in: $850 billion for defense and $736 billion for nondefense. For ease, we’ll call these the “revised caps.”
For example, say it is April 29 and Congress has already approved full-year spending packages for 11 of the 12 appropriations bills. To buy more time to negotiate the 12th bill, Congress enacts a one-month CR for just that bill. Once April 30 passes, OMB must sequester funding that exceeds the revised caps—from programs funded by all 12 appropriations subcommittees—even if just one short-term CR is in place. Importantly, as soon as Congress provides funding for the last bill through September 30, the revised caps revert back to the original FRA caps ($886 billion for defense and $704 billion for nondefense). In other words: at the end of the day, when all work is completed, it is ultimately the original caps in the FRA that will apply.
So, how does Congress avoid harmful across-the-board cuts?
Congress must pass spending bills that comply with the FRA to avoid indiscriminate cuts. The House Freedom Caucus initially pushed for steeper cuts than the FRA imposes, but its leaders have since said they’ll adhere to the numbers in the deal text.
Even so, hurdles remain. First, while the FRA caps nondefense discretionary spending at $704 billion, the bipartisan deal also added $69 billion to that baseline for a total of $773 billion in nondefense discretionary spending. This is the same kind of agreement that funded the government in FY2023. However, the Freedom Caucus wants to excise those aspects of the agreement, which the law does not explicitly enshrine. Second, President Biden’s two supplemental spending requests—one for Ukraine, Israel, and other security matters, the other for domestic needs—remain unfulfilled. Third, the CR currently in place temporarily renewed expiring programs, like community health centers and the National Flood Insurance Program, through January 19 and February 2, respectively. Congress must extend these deadlines to keep those critical programs running.
The CPC Center will resume these updates in the new year to inform you about new developments. If you missed any of our previous updates, you can find them on our Unrig the Rules webpage.