February 29, 2024: Almost halfway to avoiding a shutdown

 
 

Congressional leaders announced a deal last night to avoid a partial government shutdown on March 1 and a full shutdown on March 8. Here’s what we know, what we don’t know, and what may happen next. 

What’s happening this week — Congress will pass a short-term continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government open past March 1, when four appropriations bills expire, and March 8, when the remaining eight expire. That CR will give Congress until March 8 to finalize six appropriations bills (more on these below), and March 22 to finalize the other six.

What’s happening next week — Congress will pass final versions of the following six appropriations bills, on which they’ve reached a deal. These bills will fund the government agencies and programs they cover through Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 (through September 30). 

  1. Agriculture-FDA

  2. Commerce, Justice, and Science

  3. Energy and Water

  4. Interior-Environment

  5. Military Construction-VA

  6. Transportation-HUD

What we know about the deal —

  • Spending levels will reflect previous deals. A joint bipartisan, bicameral statement said the deal would “adhere to the Fiscal Responsibility Act discretionary spending limits and January’s topline spending agreement.” You can read more about those agreements in our January 8 update, but in short: defense spending will total $886 billion and nondefense spending will total $773 billion. That represents a $26 billion bump for defense spending and a $4 billion cut for nondefense compared to current spending. 

  • We avoid a catastrophic sequester (if all goes to plan). Assuming it passes this week, the new stopgap will conclude on March 22. As we shared in our December 12 update, under the Fiscal Responsibility Act, if any CR remains in place past April 30, revised FY2024 spending caps kick in. This will force the Office of Management and Budget to cut all spending beyond $850 billion for defense and $736 billion for nondefense. Current defense spending is $10 billion over the cap, and nondefense is $41 billion over—meaning, a CR past April 30 would mean massive cuts. Even if Congress has to buy a little extra time, with more than a month between March 22 and April 30, we should still be in the clear. 

What we don’t know about the deal —

  • How much funding will each appropriations bill provide? 

  • What fate awaits policy riders? 

  • Will other priorities, like an FAA extension, hitch a ride?

  • How large will earmarks be and what will they cover? 

We’ll continue to keep you posted on major developments. 

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Cat Rowland