February 28, 2025: Shifting to a Shutdown Showdown

Most of our recent updates have focused on Republicans’ efforts to move President Trump’s legislative agenda through Congress, risking millions of Americans' access to Medicaid and food for kids to widen tax loopholes for billionaires and corporations (the latest on that here). Lest we forget, though, we’re two weeks away from the government running out of funding, threatening a government shutdown if Congress fails to act. 

Here’s what to know about the looming shutdown showdown. 

Didn’t Congress just pass a budget? 

Yes—two, in fact!—but that has nothing to do with government funding. I realize this sounds absurd. Nonetheless, the budgets that just went through the House and Senate, respectively, were simply the first steps necessary in a process that allows Republicans to advance the President’s agenda without any Democratic support.

You can read more about that process, known as “reconciliation,” here. 

So, what are you talking about when you talk about government funding?

I’m talking about annual appropriations bills, which fund federal agencies like the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and programs like the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). Appropriations bills typically fund the government through the end of each fiscal year (September 30). If a new appropriations bill has not been signed into law by that expiration date, Congress must pass a stopgap measure known as a “continuing resolution” (CR) to fund the government at current spending levels. Without a new appropriations bill or a CR, the government shuts down. 

Right now, the government is operating under a CR that extended Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 spending levels. That CR expires on March 14.

Republicans control Congress and the White House, can’t they pass whatever government funding bill they want?

No. Passing most legislation—including appropriations bills—in the Senate requires 60 votes, and Republicans only hold 53 seats. Even if Senate Republicans could garner seven Democratic votes, though, the GOP would still have a problem. Despite only needing a simple majority to pass legislation, House Republicans have shown repeatedly that they cannot keep the government open without Democratic votes. 

Bottom line: Republicans must negotiate with Democrats to keep the government open. 

Where are negotiations?

Last night, President Trump endorsed a CR—in his words, a “clean, temporary government funding Bill…to the end of September.” As a result, Republicans in Congress appear to be giving up on negotiating a new government funding package in favor of kicking the can once more. 

What’s so bad about that?

CRs = lost opportunities. 

When Congress passes a CR, it’s not passing bills to actually fund the government in a way that meets current needs—remember, the government is still operating based on FY2024 spending levels. 

On top of that, CRs don’t include community project funding, better known as “earmarks.” These funds facilitate community projects that individual members of Congress vet and advocate for. A CR through this fiscal year would forgo funds for lead service line replacements in Michigan, expanding a food bank in Texas, building a tornado shelter in Minnesota, and thousands more similar projects. 

Different definitions of “clean.” 

When it comes to CRs, clean typically means “the same”—meaning, no changes from the funding measure currently in place. However, last night, the White House sent Congress a list of changes they’d want to see in that so-called clean CR. While the list includes some noncontroversial priorities, like providing adequate funds for veterans’ care, it also includes cutting $20 billion from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS)—a funding boost Democrats passed under President Biden to help the IRS pursue ultra-wealthy tax cheats. 

This isn’t a cost-saving measure: the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that taking these resources from the IRS would actually cost taxpayers $46 billion, as it deprives the IRS of the resources it needs to ensure the mega-rich pay what they owe.  

Dogged by DOGE.  

President Trump and Elon Musk’s efforts to illegally reshape government to suit their interests has continued to wreak havoc on programs and services that keep Americans safe. In recent days, that’s entailed hundreds of firings at the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Weather Service; ending Ebola tracing in Uganda; threatening the ceasefire in Gaza; shutting down the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that recouped about $20 billion for defrauded Americans; and much, much more. 

While Democratic congressional leaders sought to forestall further chaos as part of a government funding deal, Republicans have now suggested enshrining DOGE’s actions into law as part of a CR as a way to garner votes from GOP deficit hawks who loathe CRs. However, this would discourage Democratic support. 

The Democratic House and Senate Appropriations Committee leaders, Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) and Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) said this morning that this “would only help Trump and Musk cut off support for our veterans, cancel lifesaving cancer research, and threaten seniors’ Social Security benefits,” and noted that the move was “raising the risk of a shutdown.”

So…what happens if the government shuts down?

For that, check out FAQs about Government Shutdowns.

We’ll continue to keep you updated as March 14 approaches. 

Sign up for future Unrig the Rules updates here! If you’d like a live update for your group or coalition, reach out to catherine@progressivecaucuscenter.org. Thanks!