April 9, 2025: GOP House poised to surrender power to halt tariff chaos

Good afternoon, all, 

This newsletter has focused heavily as of late on Congress’s efforts to advance President Trump’s agenda. Today, we’re deviating slightly to flag a big step the Republican House is considering related to the tariffs that went into effect at midnight—but not the step you might think. 

Note: the President has reportedly paused most reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. Given that the provision I discuss below exceeds that timeline, I feel this update is still relevant—but, obviously, things can change minute-to-minute!

Quick Recap

To kick off the fast-track reconciliation process Republicans are using to move the President’s priorities through Congress, they must first pass the same budget resolution in the House and Senate. The Senate has done this, so the ball is in the House’s court. The House aims to do this before the week is out. You can dig into this more in last week’s update.

Before the House votes on this budget resolution—or almost any other bill, for that matter—it must first set parameters for debate on that bill (e.g., how long debate will last, how many amendments will be considered, etc.). The vehicle that sets these parameters is called “the rule.” Typically, the party in the majority votes for the rule and members in the minority oppose it. 

Importantly: the rule must pass before the bill can even be debated, let alone voted on. So, taking down the rule on a bill is akin to blocking that bill.

Why This Matters Today

The House is gearing up to vote today on the rule that will govern debate on the budget resolution. Folks will already be watching this closely to see if the GOP fiscal hardliners pose an obstacle, given their qualms with the budget resolution. 

Now, though, there’s another big issue to watch. 

House Republicans have slipped language into the rule that would prohibit the House from voting to override the tariffs that went into effect today. For brevity’s sake, I won’t get into the procedural weeds. The thing to know is: Congress has the power to intervene as the President’s new tariff regime poses a massive threat to household budgets across the country. 

The Republican-controlled House leadership will not schedule a vote to use that power: Speaker Johnson defended the President and said “we have to give them a space” for the tariffs to work. A handful of Democrats began the process to go around the Speaker and force a vote. The language in the rule would block that effort, ensuring the House cannot take such a vote between now and September 30.  

This means that the House is knowingly relinquishing its power to intervene for the next five months, ensuring they cannot stop the economic fallout these tariffs could cause between now and then. 

Votes are currently expected around 3:30PM ET. You can follow along here.