November 13, 2023: What to know about this week's shutdown showdown
The government will shut down this weekend unless Congress and the President approve a stopgap spending bill by Friday night. Below is a brief rundown of where things stand. The CPC Center will break down the latest news on this issue as needed this week.
On Saturday, Speaker Johnson unveiled his proposal to avoid a shutdown. What’s in it?
Funding through January 19, 2024 for: federal agencies financed through the 1) Agriculture-FDA, 2) Energy-Water, 3) Military Construction-VA, and 4) Transportation-HUD spending bills.
Funding through February 2, 2024 for: agencies financed through the 1) Commerce-Justice-Science, 2) Defense, 3) Financial Services-General Government, 4) Homeland Security, 5) Interior-Environment, 6) Labor-HHS-Education, 7) Legislative Branch, and 8) State-Foreign Operations bills.
Extensions for some expiring programs. Certain health programs, like community health centers, are renewed through January 19. The National Flood Insurance Program is extended through February 2. Most expired farm bill programs are extended through September 30.
Miscellaneous provisions. The bill provides extra funding for the Secret Service ahead of the 2024 election; student loan administration (to account for repayments restarting); and procuring a Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine. The bill also provides $174,000 to the late Senator Dianne Feinstein’s daughter, a benefit traditionally bequeathed to a surviving spouse or beneficiary when a member of Congress dies.
What’s not in Speaker Johnson’s proposal?
Cuts that far-right House members sought. The bill extends current federal funding levels until January 19 and February 2, respectively.
Any of the White House’s supplemental funding requests. President Biden has asked Congress for two emergency funding packages: $106 billion for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, the U.S. border, and other “national security” needs, and $56 billion for domestic disaster aid, child care, broadband, and more.
Immigration policy changes. Senators are reportedly in bipartisan talks to modify immigration policies in exchange for Ukraine aid. The Johnson proposal steers clear of such changes.
Extension for Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). The Johnson proposal does not extend government surveillance authorities sunsetting on December 31. This omission is reportedly intended to allow bipartisan negotiations on these authorities to continue.
What’s with the two different deadlines?
Over the last couple weeks, a lot of ink has been spilled over what Speaker Johnson described as a “laddered CR” that extends funding for different federal agencies for different lengths of time. This weekend, the Speaker tweaked his language and referred to his CR as “two-tiered.”
To understand the Speaker’s proposal, look at the House and Senate’s progress on FY2024 appropriations bills. The Senate approved its FY2024 Agriculture-FDA, Military Construction-VA, and Transportation-HUD bills. The House has passed its FY2024 Energy-Water and Military Construction-VA bills and is aiming to pass Transportation-HUD this week. As such, each chamber has indicated its members’ positions on those bills. This progress could enable quicker talks to extend funding for the relevant agencies through FY2024—hence the earlier deadline for the CR’s first “tier.” The extra two weeks for negotiations on the second tier indicate the chambers’ lack of progress on these eight bills relative to the previous four.
Lawmakers in both parties have been highly skeptical of the tiered CR, which could result in staggered shutdowns for different parts of the federal government. Extending funding for different agencies for different lengths of time does have precedent. However, it’s still a risky approach that could lead to multiple scrambles to avoid partial shutdowns. For example, in December 2014, Congress fashioned a “CRomnibus” that avoided a shutdown amidst the holidays and funded most of the government through the fiscal year, except for the Homeland Security department. That led to another rush to avoid a partial government shutdown in February when the Homeland Security CR portion of the CRomnibus expired.
In short: a multiple-step approach to funding the government isn’t a new idea—but, if history is any indication, it’s a recipe for multiple near-shutdowns, too.
What happens now?
The House Rules Committee will meet this afternoon to draft parameters for a floor debate (i.e., the “rule”) on the Johnson CR. That debate could happen as soon as tomorrow, provided the rule gets enough votes to advance (218). I won’t spell out every possible scenario. Suffice it to say: whether the CR moves under a rule or under suspension of the rules, the Speaker will need House Democratic support to get it over the finish line.
While Democrats in the House, Senate, and White House have panned the Johnson proposal, no one has explicitly pushed a “no” vote or threatened a veto. This may indicate that Democrats are willing to strike a deal that advances their priorities and gives the Speaker the votes he needs to keep the government open. What that deal looks like could emerge in the coming days.
The Senate is also readying the procedural steps necessary to advance its own stopgap spending bill, should the House gambit stall. However, we don’t yet know what that stopgap would look like, nor do we know if there will be sufficient votes for it to advance before the bill is public.
Lastly, it’s worth noting that former Speaker McCarthy lost his job less than two months ago for compromising his members’ priorities to keep the government open. That’s exactly what Speaker Johnson is doing now. Since Johnson is new to the job, far-right House members may let it slide—this time—but his approach here will presumably expend a lot of goodwill among his members. As such, the stakes could be higher for Johnson in the next shutdown fight, when the motion to vacate threat that ousted McCarthy could loom even larger.
The upshot for Hill-watchers? Shutdown showdowns aren’t getting simpler under a new House Speaker. As evidenced by the multiple-step CR, they might actually be getting more complicated. We hope these updates from the CPC Center help you navigate it all!