November 16, 2023: How the fight to keep government open will be different in January
Congress is poised to sidestep a federal government shutdown this weekend. The House passed a stopgap funding bill on Tuesday, which the Senate has now sent to the President’s desk to become law. As we described in Monday’s update, this bill sets up two new deadlines when government funding will expire: January 19 for some federal agencies and February 2 for others. While those end dates are just over two months from now, circumstances surrounding the next shutdown fight may be quite different—more on that below.
First, a housekeeping note: in case you missed one of the CPC Center’s previous updates in the leadup to this week’s funding fight, you can now find them on our website, here! Given Congress’ action this week, we’ll pause these updates barring any major unexpected developments. We’ll resume them once the CR’s first expiration date approaches.
How will January’s shutdown showdown be different?
#1: There will be two of them.
Some federal agencies will run out of money on January 19, the rest on February 2. Congress could pass a single package covering all 12 appropriations bills before the first deadline. Nothing requires them to deal with each batch separately. There’s also nothing forcing Congress to wait until the last possible moment to act. However, that’s usually what happens—so, prepare for a scramble to avoid a partial shutdown on January 19 and a potential redux two weeks later.
#2: The holidays and recess won’t be right around the corner.
Congress considered this CR after 10 weeks without a recess and right before Thanksgiving, with the December holidays in sight. Members are reportedly eager to return to their districts after a lengthy session characterized by two near-shutdowns, a Speaker’s ousting, another Speaker’s election, and a devastating war in Israel and Gaza. As a result, exhausted Members weren’t eager to prolong their stay on Capitol Hill. After the holidays, Members might be rejuvenated and ready to hold out for their priorities—even if it means more time in D.C.
#3: The new Speaker won’t be so new anymore.
As we said in our last update, this CR leaves out major far-right priorities. It also passed with more Democratic votes than GOP votes. Most House Republicans supported it, but just barely. Perhaps none of this will doom Speaker Johnson to Speaker McCarthy’s fate because some GOP Members felt “personal animus” towards McCarthy, as his backers tell it. There is evidence that McCarthy’s antagonists have more patience for his successor: as one Member said of Johnson, “at least (Johnson) doesn’t lie to us.” Plus, the Members who championed McCarthy’s ouster have signaled they’d give Speaker Johnson some leeway in his early days on the job.
That being said: this CR may accelerate the end of Johnson’s grace period—and this isn’t the last thorny issue he’ll navigate before the CR expires. For example, Congress still hasn’t passed its annual defense bill or dealt with surveillance authorities sunsetting next month. Republicans haven’t threatened Johnson with the “motion to vacate” that ended McCarthy’s speakership—yet—but the matters he’ll deal with between now and January 19 could further jeopardize the goodwill that characterized his early tenure. If that happens, Johnson could be more deferential to his right flank when the next shutdown showdown occurs. On the other hand…
#4: An election year changes Members’ political calculus.
By January 19, the 2024 campaign will be in full swing. Most Members in both parties and chambers will want to avoid an election-year shutdown that angers the public, roils the economy, and keeps Members off the campaign trail. The same could be true of another Speaker fight: far-right Members who might otherwise seek to hold Speaker Johnson accountable for jettisoning their priorities in favor of a bipartisan government funding bill may think twice about another lengthy Speaker election that could bring the House to a standstill. At the same time, endangered House Members and Senators from both parties could be loathe to take what they view as perilous votes. How Members define those will vary, but one constant holds for everyone: in an election year, political considerations are top of mind.
#5: The threat of punishing cuts will loom larger.
Theoretically, this CR gives Congress two months to finish bills that fund the government through FY2024 (ending September 30). Holiday breaks constitute much of that time, leaving the House just 21 legislative days to accomplish this under their current schedule (the Senate hasn’t released a 2024 calendar). This doesn’t leave much time—but, as a reminder, this summer’s debt ceiling deal forces 1 percent cuts to defense and nondefense discretionary spending caps if a CR is in place on January 1. If a CR goes through April 30, that 1 percent cut is formally sequestered for the year. As such, members in both parties might be extra motivated to finish FY2024 spending bills and neutralize that sequester threat—or, at the very least, postpone enforcing the sequester as Congress has done in the past.
#6: The world may look different—and make President Biden’s emergency funding requests feel different.
Will the war in Gaza and its humanitarian fallout continue in January? Will a winter storm make the President’s request for disaster aid more urgent? Will bipartisan talks in the Senate on Ukraine assistance and border policy stall or progress? We don’t know. What we do know is that these issues are not static, and new issues could arise between now and January 19. As such, the President’s emergency funding requests could feel more—or less—urgent for Congress to act on in the new year.