December 10, 2024: What to Watch in a Short-Term Spending Bill
Congress is gearing up to pass another short-term continuing resolution (CR) ahead of a December 20 deadline to avoid a government shutdown. While there’s broad consensus that Congress will approve a CR and avert a shutdown, exactly what that CR looks like remains to be seen. Here’s what to watch.
How long will the CR last?
Tl;dr: it’s hard to say.
Reporting indicates House GOP leadership wants the CR to end in mid-March. This would give the new President a little breathing room between his January 20th inauguration and a high-stakes negotiation over Fiscal Year 2025 spending. However, not everyone is on board: incoming Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-ME) favors an earlier expiration date, as do congressional Democrats. President-elect Trump, meanwhile, hasn’t weighed in—yet.
Importantly, a March-or-sooner target sidesteps an April 30 cutoff under the Fiscal Responsibility Act (remember that?!), which imposes new spending caps if a CR remains in place. For a refresher on that April 30 deadline and its implications, see our December 12, 2023 edition, Why a “date change CR” isn’t just a “date change.”
What will the CR include?
The CR will be one of the last legislative trains leaving the station this year, so lawmakers will want their priorities to hitch a ride. Reporting suggests a one-year farm bill extension is on the table, but other items are sure to follow. For example, federal support for community health centers, the NIH’s Special Diabetes Program, and more runs out at the end of this year.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) recently rebuffed a White House request for more Ukraine aid, but that doesn’t mean all Democratic priorities are dead on arrival. Remember: some far-right House Republicans will never support a CR on principle—meaning, Speaker Johnson will need some Democratic support to get this bill over the finish line and avoid a shutdown during President-elect Trump’s first days back in the White House.
What about disaster relief?
Hurricanes Helene and Milton devastated communities in the Southeast this fall, prompting a bipartisan push for emergency aid, including a $99 billion White House request. Meanwhile, Marylanders are still waiting on federal funds to rebuild Baltimore’s Key Bridge.
House Freedom Caucus members reportedly want to offset any disaster aid in the CR with spending cuts—even though emergency relief doesn’t count against budget caps and, therefore, need not be offset. Should the Speaker acquiesce, he risks losing votes from Democratic and Republicans representing hard-hit communities. Plus, again, far-right Members in the Freedom Caucus aren’t likely to vote for a CR under any circumstances. So, disaster relief’s fate may depend on which constituency the Speaker feels he must satisfy to get this CR through the House.
Do I have to worry about the debt ceiling again?
Not yet. The current debt limit extension sunsets on January 1, but the Treasury Department can typically buy a few extra months to keep the government from defaulting on its debts. Moreover, congressional Republicans have historically only used the debt ceiling as leverage to demand spending cuts under Democratic presidents. If history is any indication, next year’s GOP-controlled Congress will raise the debt limit under President-elect Trump with little fanfare.