December 18, 2024: The CR is out—now what?

Last night, Congressional leaders announced a deal to avoid a government shutdown this Friday. Since the House Appropriations Committee and the press have summarized the legislation, I won’t repeat those details. Instead, I’ll explain what to expect now that a deal is out.

Government funding dries up in two days. Will there be a shutdown?

No—or, at least, not a disruptive one. The stopgap currently keeping the government open expires on December 20. It is possible that the continuing resolution (CR) released last night doesn’t make it to President Biden’s desk before that deadline—more on that below. 

However, small gaps between government funding bills don’t grind government operations to a halt the way lengthy shutdowns do, especially when they happen over the weekend. Between Fiscal Years (FY) 1977-2019, 10 such gaps lasted three days or fewer, so they’re not uncommon. While we might see this kind of delay in the coming days, it’s not cause for panic. 

Why doesn’t Congress vote on the CR today and head home?

Let’s start with the Senate because once the House clears this deal, the Senate will take it up relatively quickly. Senators who didn’t get their priorities into the bill could throw up delay tactics to show their displeasure, but no one expects a serious holdup less than a week before Christmas and Hanukkah. 

The House is more complicated. Speaker Mike Johnson repeatedly promised House Republicans he would not allow a vote on a “Christmas omnibus”—that is, a giant bill to fund the government through FY2025 that carries a bunch of extra priorities—but the bill released last night is almost worse in their estimation. It includes health legislation, disaster relief, a cost-of-living boost for Members, changes to Member health care benefits, and on and on, without even funding the government through the fiscal year. So, Republicans will have to vote again on a government funding bill—something they’re already loath to do—less than three months from now when this one expires on March 14. 

So, the Speaker might need to throw the GOP some procedural bones to get this done with his speakership intact. The Freedom Caucus released a list of demands, including not moving the CR via a fast-track process that requires two-thirds of the House—i.e., Democrats—to support it. Without getting too into the weeds, moving the CR under “regular order”—as in, not fast-tracking it—would require almost every House Republican to vote “yes” during a procedural vote before a vote on the bill itself. Again, House Republicans hate voting for spending bills, especially CRs, so that procedural vote is likely destined to fail—meaning, this approach almost certainly won’t work. However, the Speaker might feel he needs to attempt it, fail, and then use the fast-track process to get this deal over the finish line.

Then what happens when this CR expires? 

When this CR runs out on March 14, Republicans will control the White House, House, and Senate. They’ll face extra pressure to avoid yet another CR for FY2025—not just because the GOP dislikes them, but because last year’s Fiscal Responsibility Act imposes new spending caps if a CR remains in place past April 30. To avoid this and maintain maximum flexibility in their spending decisions, Republicans will likely want to get a full-year spending measure done before April 30. 

For a refresher on that April 30 deadline and its implications, see our December 12, 2023 edition, “Why a “date change CR” isn’t just a “date change.”

This will be our last Unrig the Rules update of 2024! It’s been a privilege to work with you all over the past year, and we hope you’ve found these updates helpful. Please encourage your friends and colleagues to sign up for future updates here, and we’ll be back in 2025!